To the Obama supporters on this site:
This is my first diary, so let me begin by stating I am an Obama supporter myself. I am writing this because I believe the Obama camp has a problem that we, the netroots in particular, can help solve.
What is the problem? Read below the fold to find out.
The problem? We very well can win Maine today. But, regardless of the final outcome, I think we once again missed a good opportunity to win a major media battle that could have played in our favor and instead could hurt us.
Looking at things from a strictly objective point of view, Maine should favor Clinton. Simple as that. And yet, if Obama does win today, it will likely be nearly meaningless, probably won't get more than a mention in the press, and if Clinton wins, we will be reading about how she beat expectations and stopped Obama's momentum from yesterday in its tracks. We should (keyword should) have been able to spin the media without even spinning, but just telling the facts. In Maine:
- Women should comprise a significant chunk of the electorate.
- It is one of only 3 states in the entire nation where BOTH Senators are female.
- Older-skewing electorate.
- It is one of the very few remaining Feb states Clinton has actually made a serious attempt to win.
- She has the support of the Governor and most of the state's establishment, congressmen, former senators, etc.
- Of those she did not have, the Edwards-supporting congressmen all moved to her when he got out.
- Northeast state.
- 97 percent white and next largest minority is asian.
- New Jersey-like working class democrats.
- Few students.
Admittedly, Obama does have the caucus structure to his benefit, but as Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa show, that doesn't guarantee an automatic 20 point victory; it comes through hard work and organizing, and thousands of phone calls. My point is simple: a win is not a given (even Poblano's model, just yesterday, showed Maine a complete tossup), and yet, by treating it as such, the expectations bar is so low that an Obama win will probably mean next to nothing.
Let me make clear: I have no doubt it is possible for Obama to win tonight. I hope people realize that, when we talk about how great Obama is doing, it is important not to get carried away. It was easy to say Obama would sweep Louisiana, and Nebraska. Easier yet to say he would dominate in Virgina, Maryland, and D.C. But in doing so, it becomes easy to become overconfident and throw in what I see as true tossups like Washington, Maine, and Wisconsin. Even Kos has warned against "Irrational Exuberance" in recent weeks, and I think he's right. Let's not take any state as a "gimme" for Obama, and maybe we just might muster enough momentum to carry into March 4th and beyond.